France has surged to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner have shifted dramatically
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a shift in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team unexpectedly topped the rankings, displacing the Spanish, who lost ground after a sensational draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde.
Before the group stage began, Spain was confidently leading the odds. However, a goalless draw against a team participating in the World Cup for the first time immediately impacted the numbers. Traders quickly reassessed their expectations, and now the French team holds the top spot with an 18.4% probability of winning. The contract for their championship is trading at $0.185.
How the balance of power has changed
Spain dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing approximately 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina (11%, $0.116) and England (10%, $0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites—also around 10% at a price of $0.103. The total volume of the tournament winner betting market has already exceeded $2.54 billion, indicating exceptionally high interest in the event.
Spain's draw with Cape Verde was one of the biggest surprises of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the sharp drop in Spanish odds was quite expected. Nevertheless, the team has not been ruled out as a contender: it remains in the top group and retains chances to improve its position in upcoming matches.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
On June 17, the spotlight is on the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same match day, England will face Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is likely to be the last of his career, which adds special significance to the debut match. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen its position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five leaders.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: Prediction markets like Polymarket are becoming increasingly accurate indicators of public sentiment and real expectations. Unlike traditional bookmakers, they operate on a decentralized basis and react almost instantly to any events. The current situation is a clear example of how one unexpected result can radically change the entire picture of favorites. Keep an eye on the dynamics: the density in the top five is extremely high, and any group stage match could turn the tables.