Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and calm among short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show a consolidation phase, despite positive macroeconomic signals. The agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risks for the energy sector, failed to push bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. The main drag remains concerns related to potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Analysts at QCP Capital point out that the company may need to sell part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The strategy of issuing shares aimed at raising capital creates additional pressure: the more the company increases its growth potential, the higher the risk that this optimism will backfire on the BTC price.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic picture is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally favors risky assets. This is also confirmed by the behavior of short-term holders. According to CryptoQuant data (COINDREAM team), the SOPR indicator for this category of investors is at 0.995, indicating only minor unrealized losses.
The indicator is holding firmly above the "panic threshold" of 0.95. The current structure points to a fragile recovery phase, rather than mass capitulation. A return of SOPR to the 1 level will signal an improvement in short-term sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 will be a harbinger of growing panic.
However, against the backdrop of relative calm in bitcoin, pressure on altcoins has reached extreme levels. Researchers at IT Tech have recorded a five-year high in spot market selling. The cumulative difference between buying and selling volumes for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. A brief recovery to the zero level at the beginning of 2025 was followed by a sharp reversal, and since then the indicator has been steadily declining.
My analysis: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather accumulation before the next move. Pressure from Strategy is a temporary factor that the market is already pricing in. What is much more important is that short-term holders are not panicking, meaning the bottom is likely near. However, the total flight from altcoins is an alarming signal, indicating a liquidity shift exclusively into BTC. As long as this trend persists, a broad altseason should not be expected.