Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy and holder calmness
The agreement between the US and Iran has somewhat reduced geopolitical risks for global energy, but Bitcoin continues to consolidate below the $66,000 mark. The main factor holding back the growth of the first cryptocurrency is the lingering concern over potential new sales by Strategy.
According to my data, Strategy may be forced to sell an additional volume of Bitcoin to finance dividend payments. This has become particularly relevant after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. Although the company continues to expand its potential through share issuance, this optimism could ultimately work against the market by creating excess supply.
On the other hand, the macroeconomic situation is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally supports risk assets. However, pressure from corporate participants is currently outweighing positive macro factors.
Short-term holders remain calm
Analysis of on-chain data shows that short-term Bitcoin holders are not panicking. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating minor losses but far from the critical panic threshold of 0.95. The current market structure more closely resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation.
A return of SOPR to a value of 1 would signal an improvement in short-term sentiment. Meanwhile, a drop below 0.95 would indicate an increased risk of mass selling. For now, we are observing a wait-and-see stance.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
The situation in the altcoin market looks significantly more alarming. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC and ETH) has remained in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. Selling pressure has reached a five-year high.
Interestingly, at the beginning of 2025, the indicator nearly recovered to zero but then sharply reversed and continued its decline. This suggests that capital is flowing from altcoins into safer assets or stablecoins.
My opinion: The market is in a redistribution phase. While corporate players like Strategy are putting pressure on Bitcoin, altcoins are suffering from liquidity outflows. However, for long-term investors, the current consolidation is an opportunity, not a threat. As the CIO of Bitwise rightly noted, there is no need to obsess over finding the bottom—it is far more important to look toward the next bull cycle.