France has surged to the lead in World Cup 2026 betting on Polymarket: Spain loses ground after a sensational draw
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a sharp shift in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team has taken the lead, capitalizing on an unexpected stumble by Spain, which failed to beat tournament debutants Cape Verde.
Before the opening round, Spain confidently led the ranking of contenders. However, a goalless draw with the underdog instantly changed the balance of power. Traders quickly reacted to the disappointing result, and the French team seized the lead.
New Balance of Power on Polymarket
According to data from the platform, France now accounts for 18.4% of all bets to win the tournament. The contract for their championship is trading at $0.185. The team has slightly increased over the past day and solidified its position at the top.
Spain has dropped to second place with a probability of 13% and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104).
Portugal rounds out the top five favorites—also around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner market has exceeded $2.54 billion, reflecting high interest in the tournament.
Why Spain Lost Ground
Spain's draw with Cape Verde was one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered highly unlikely, so the unexpected result hit the Spanish odds hard.
However, the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains chances to improve their position in upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely packed together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the Day and Ronaldo's Debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 versus $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same game day, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, adding special significance to the debut match. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen their position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five leaders.
My analysis: The current dynamics on Polymarket clearly demonstrate how sensitive the prediction market is to group stage results. Spain, despite the stumble, remains in the game, but now must prove its worth in every match. France, on the other hand, has gained a psychological advantage, yet the density in the top five is so high that any failure could send them back to square one. Watch the liquidity flow—it is now the main indicator of trader sentiment.