Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis of consolidation reasons and hidden risks
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, with the bitcoin price stubbornly holding below the $66,000 mark. Despite the recent agreement between the US and Iran somewhat reducing geopolitical risks for the energy sector, the main drag on growth remains concerns related to potential large-scale sales by Strategy.
My analysis shows that the key pressure factor is Strategy's need to finance dividend payments. After redeeming convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion maturing in 2029, the company will likely have to sell off part of its bitcoin reserves. The paradox of the situation is that aggressive share issuance and the buildup of Strategy's growth potential, which is usually perceived as a bullish signal, could backfire on the market under current conditions, intensifying selling.
However, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally favors risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Short-term holder behavior: a fragile equilibrium
Let's turn to on-chain analytics data. According to calculations by the COINDREAM team from CryptoQuant, the SOPR indicator for short-term holders (STH) is near the 0.995 mark. This suggests that this category of investors is recording minor losses but is not yet panicking.
The key level to watch is 0.95. As long as the indicator stays above this "panic threshold," the market is in a phase of fragile recovery rather than full capitulation. A return of SOPR to 1.0 will be the first confirmation of improving sentiment, while a break below 0.95 will be a clear signal of rising fear and a potential crash.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is much more alarming. Data from IT Tech researchers indicates that selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high.
The cumulative difference between buying and selling volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin and Ethereum has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, this metric nearly returned to zero, offering hope for a reversal, but then a sharp downturn followed, and the decline continues.
My expert opinion: The current consolidation of bitcoin is not just a "calm before the storm" but rather a game of nerves. While the market awaits a decision from Strategy, altcoins are already voting with their feet. Investors should closely monitor the short-term holder SOPR: if it breaks below the 0.95 level, we could see a sharp correction that will also affect bitcoin. Ignoring signals from the altcoin market would be a serious mistake.