France has surged to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner have shifted dramatically.
The decentralized prediction market Polymarket has recorded a change in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team now holds the top spot, displacing Spain after the latter's unexpected goalless draw with Cape Verde.
Before the tournament started, Spain was confidently leading the odds, but the result of the match against the tournament debutant instantly shifted the balance of power. Traders quickly reacted to the disappointing outcome, and "Les Bleus" seized the initiative.
New Odds: France at the Top
According to the latest Polymarket data, France's probability of winning stands at 18.4%, with the contract for their championship trading at $0.185. Over the past day, the team has slightly strengthened its position and secured the top spot.
Spain has dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104).
Rounding out the top five favorites is Portugal, also at about 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner betting market has exceeded $2.54 billion, reflecting high interest in the tournament.
Why Spain Lost Ground
Spain's draw with Cape Verde became one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the unexpected result dealt a heavy blow to the Spanish odds.
However, the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and still has a chance to improve their standing in upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely packed together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the Day and Ronaldo's Debut
The focus on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77, compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same game day, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen their position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five leaders.
Analytical Commentary: The sharp change in favorite on Polymarket after a single match demonstrates the high volatility and sensitivity of decentralized markets to unexpected results. However, Spain should not be written off—a draw with an underdog does not negate the team's depth of squad and tactical flexibility. The market is clearly overreacting to short-term shocks, and in the long term, the Spanish could still regain the lead.