Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis of consolidation reasons and key market signals
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways dynamics, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks. The agreement between the US and Iran, although easing tensions in the global energy sector, failed to push bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. The main restraining factor is concerns related to potential new sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
The company, which holds the largest corporate BTC portfolio, may be forced to sell off some assets to finance dividend payments. This issue becomes particularly acute after the repurchase of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. Paradoxically, Strategy's aggressive stock issuance, which is usually seen as a bullish signal, could backfire on bitcoin under current conditions, increasing pressure on the price.
On the other hand, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally favors risk assets. However, this positive trend has yet to be reflected in the price of BTC.
Short-term holders: calm before the storm?
On-chain data analysis shows that short-term investors (STH) are still maintaining their composure. The SOPR indicator for this category of holders stands at 0.995, indicating only minimal losses. The current structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than a full-scale capitulation. The key panic threshold is the 0.95 level. A return of SOPR to 1 will be the first confirmation of improving sentiment, while a break below 0.95 would be an alarming signal, indicating growing fear and a potential wave of sell-offs.
Altcoins under pressure: a five-year anti-record
Against the backdrop of relative stability in bitcoin, the altcoin market is experiencing tough times. Selling pressure has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
At the beginning of 2025, this indicator nearly returned to zero, offering hope for a trend reversal. However, a sharp reversal followed, and since then, selling pressure has only intensified. This suggests that investors are actively offloading altcoins, preferring to lock in losses or shift capital into more liquid assets.
My view: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a lull but accumulation. The market is waiting to see how the fate of major corporate holders like Strategy unfolds. If selling pressure from the company eases and the macroeconomic backdrop continues to improve, we could see a sharp upward surge. However, the current weakness of altcoins is a serious warning signal. As long as capital flows into BTC and stablecoins, it is premature to talk about the start of a full-fledged altseason. Long-term investors should focus on fundamental factors rather than trying to catch the bottom.