France surges to the lead: Polymarket records a change in the 2026 World Cup favorite after Spain's sensational draw
The decentralized prediction market Polymarket has recorded a significant shift in the race for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team now confidently leads the ranking of favorites, displacing Spain from the top spot. The reason for this sharp change in odds was an unexpected result in the Spaniards' opening match.
Change of Leader: How a Draw with Cape Verde Reshaped the Market
Before the tournament began, Spain was considered the undisputed favorite according to Polymarket traders. However, a goalless draw with World Cup debutants, the Cape Verde national team, immediately impacted the odds. The market quickly reacted to the disappointing result, and the French team seized the initiative.
Currently, France's victory accounts for 18.4% of all bets, with its championship contract trading at a price of $0.185. Spain has dropped to second place with a probability of 13% and a contract price of around $0.134, losing approximately 3 percentage points in a day.
Top 5 Contenders: Density at the Top
The group of leaders remains highly competitive. Following the favorites are:
- Argentina — 11% ($0.116)
- England — 10% ($0.104)
- Portugal — around 10% ($0.103)
The total volume of the market for bets on the tournament winner has already exceeded $2.54 billion, indicating immense interest in the event from the crypto community.
It is important to note: the market has only cooled on Spain but has not written them off. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains chances to improve their position in the upcoming group stage matches.
Matches of the Day: Ronaldo's Debut in the Spotlight
June 17 is a key game day. The focus is on the debut of the Portuguese national team and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is valued at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same day, England will face Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Also taking place are matches between Ghana and Panama, and Uzbekistan and Colombia, where the Colombians are considered clear favorites with odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament will be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen its position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five leaders.
My view: The Polymarket market once again demonstrates its sensitivity to real sports events. Spain's draw is a vivid example of how one unexpected result can instantly redistribute millions of dollars in liquidity. However, it is worth remembering that the group stage is a marathon, not a sprint. Current odds reflect only a short-term reaction from traders, not a final verdict. Portugal with Ronaldo, despite his veteran status, remains a dangerous dark horse capable of springing a surprise.