Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calmness of short-term holders
The agreement between the U.S. and Iran has indeed reduced geopolitical risks, especially in the context of global energy. However, bitcoin continues to trade below the $66,000 mark, and the main reason is fears of new sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). The company will likely have to sell off part of its bitcoin reserves to fund dividend payments, especially after redeeming $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. This is putting significant pressure on the market.
At the same time, Strategy continues to actively issue shares, increasing its growth potential. However, in my opinion, such optimism may ultimately backfire on the first cryptocurrency: capital dilution and the need to cover debt obligations could trigger new waves of sell-offs.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic situation is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally benefits risk assets. Against this backdrop, short-term bitcoin holders are showing surprising calm. According to data from CryptoQuant analysts (COINDREAM team), the SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995. This indicates minor losses but is far from panic territory. The indicator remains above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95.
The current market structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. If the SOPR returns to the 1 level, it will confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment. Conversely, a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of increased risk of panic selling.
Interestingly, amid bitcoin's relative stability, pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. IT Tech researchers note that the cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, the indicator nearly closed at the zero level, but then sharply reversed and has been declining ever since.
My comment: The situation resembles a classic "bearish" scenario for altcoins, where capital flows into the most liquid assets — bitcoin and, to some extent, ether. However, if pressure from Strategy intensifies, we could see a synchronized decline that would also affect BTC. For now, the market is balancing on the edge, and the key signal will be the reaction of short-term holders to potential new sales.