France takes the lead: Polymarket odds for 2026 World Cup winner shift dramatically
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a change in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team has overtaken Spain to take the top spot in betting volume, reacting to the Spaniards' unexpected draw with Cape Verde in the opening round.
Before the tournament began, Spain was confidently leading the rankings, but a goalless draw with a World Cup debutant instantly changed the landscape. Traders immediately factored the disappointing result into the odds, and France seized the initiative.
New Odds: Who is Now in the Top?
According to Polymarket data, France now accounts for 18.4% of all bets. The contract for their championship is trading at $0.185. The team has slightly improved over the past day and has solidified its position at the top.
Spain has dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the group of favorites, also at around 10% with a contract price of $0.103.
The total volume of the winner market has already exceeded $2.54 billion, reflecting the enormous interest in the tournament from the crypto community.
Why Did Spain Lose Ground?
Spain's draw with Cape Verde was one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered highly unlikely, so the unexpected result dealt a heavy blow to the Spanish odds.
However, the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains the chance to improve their position in subsequent matches. The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight: France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely bunched together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the Day and Ronaldo's Debut
The focus on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same matchday, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play Panama, and Uzbekistan will face Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen their position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five.
My analysis: The Polymarket market once again demonstrates high sensitivity to tournament results. Spain's draw is a classic example of how a single match can reshape the entire favorite landscape. However, don't count the Spaniards out: the density in the top five is such that any slip-up by a favorite could lead to another shake-up. Watch the dynamics closely—it's in moments like these that the most profitable bets are made.