Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis of consolidation reasons and pressure from Strategy
The market for the first cryptocurrency continues to be in a sideways phase, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks. The agreement between the US and Iran, which was expected to ease tensions in the global energy sector, did not act as a catalyst for Bitcoin's growth. The price stubbornly holds below the $66,000 mark, and the key reason for this is fears related to potential large-scale sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Pressure from Strategy: The Threat of Dividend Payments
An analysis of the situation shows that the main factor restraining growth is the potential need for Strategy to sell Bitcoin to finance dividend payments. Particular concern is raised by the company's buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. Given the aggressive issuance of shares and increasing debt burden, the optimism surrounding Strategy's growth potential could backfire on the market. Any major liquidation of BTC reserves could trigger a local correction and increase pressure on the price.
Macroeconomic Stability and Holder Behavior
Nevertheless, on the macroeconomic front, some stabilization is observed, which traditionally benefits risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, investors are not yet rushing to buy. Data on short-term holders (STH) confirms the absence of panic. The SOPR indicator for this category is near 0.995, indicating minor losses but not capitulation. The metric confidently holds above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95. The current market structure suggests a fragile recovery phase rather than a complete collapse. A return of SOPR to the level of 1 will be the first signal of improving sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would mean a sharp rise in fear and a potential sell-off.
Altcoins Under Pressure: Five-Year High in Selling
Against the backdrop of relative Bitcoin stability, the altcoin market is experiencing a veritable wave of selling. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and ETH, has reached a five-year low. The negative zone has persisted for 15 consecutive months. A brief attempt at recovery in early 2025 was quickly suppressed, and since then, selling pressure has only intensified. This indicates a deep liquidity shift and a lack of confidence in altcoins as an asset class.
My View on the Situation
The market finds itself in a classic trap of uncertainty. On one hand, the macroeconomic backdrop is improving, and short-term holders are not panicking. On the other hand, the sword of Damocles of a potential sell-off from Strategy hangs over the market, while altcoins are bleeding. Until the fate of Strategy's bonds becomes clear and a clear catalyst for breaking the $66,000 level emerges, we will observe a sluggish consolidation. For long-term investors, it is now truly worth focusing less on finding the bottom and more on the fundamental prospects of the next bull cycle.