Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and short-term holder calm
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to be in a consolidation phase, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran. Bitcoin stubbornly holds below the $66,000 mark, with the key pressure factor being concerns related to potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Analysis shows that the company will likely be forced to sell off part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox of the situation is that Strategy continues to actively issue shares, increasing its growth potential, but this optimism could ultimately work against BTC, creating additional supply on the market.
Macroeconomic stabilization and holder calm
On the other hand, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally favors risk assets. However, this is not yet enough to break the current range.
Data from CryptoQuant by the COINDREAM team indicates that short-term holders are maintaining their composure. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors is near the 0.995 mark, signaling only minor unrealized losses. This metric is holding firmly above the "panic threshold," which runs at the 0.95 level.
The current market structure resembles more a fragile recovery phase than a total capitulation. A return of the SOPR to a value of 1 will be the first signal of an improvement in short-term sentiment. Conversely, a break below 0.95 will indicate a sharp rise in panic sentiment and a possible acceleration of the downward movement.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is much more alarming. According to data from IT Tech researchers, selling pressure in this segment has reached a five-year high.
The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and ETH, has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, this metric almost returned to zero, raising hopes for a trend reversal, but then a sharp reversal followed, and the decline continued without pause.
My comment: Bitcoin's consolidation is a classic "battle of titans" between macroeconomic optimism and microstructural pressure from large players. Until Strategy clarifies its sales plans, BTC will find it difficult to overcome resistance. As for altcoins, the current level of selling is a serious "red flag," indicating a deep shift in investor preferences towards more liquid and "safe" assets, such as bitcoin.