France surges to the lead: Polymarket rewrites 2026 World Cup favorites after Spain's sensational draw
The decentralized prediction market Polymarket has recorded a change in the main favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The French national team has taken the lead, displacing Spain from the top spot. The reason for this shift was Spain's unexpected goalless draw against tournament debutant Cape Verde.
Just a few hours before the opening whistle, Spain was confidently leading the odds. However, the disastrous result in the match against the underdog forced traders to instantly reassess their positions. France not only caught up but immediately seized the initiative, capitalizing on the competitor's misstep.
New balance of power at the top of the table
According to my analysis of the Polymarket market, France's victory now accounts for 18.4% of all bets. The contract for their championship is trading at $0.185. The team has slightly but confidently gained over the last day and has secured the top spot.
Spain has dropped to second place with a probability of 13% and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. Argentina rounds out the top three with 11% ($0.116). England and Portugal are in a tight group — both at 10% with contracts around $0.104 and $0.103, respectively.
The total volume of the betting market on the World Cup winner has already exceeded $2.54 billion. This figure speaks volumes about the crypto community's enormous interest in the tournament and the high liquidity of this event.
Why Spain lost ground and what's next
The draw with Cape Verde became one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the unexpected result hit the Spanish odds hard. However, it's too early to write them off: the market has only cooled towards the team, but has not eliminated them from the list of main contenders.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely packed together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture. The group stage is a time when prediction markets are most volatile.
Matches of the day: Ronaldo's debut and England vs. Croatia battle
The focus on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is valued at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same match day, England faces Croatia. The favorites here are the British with a contract price of $0.58. Also, Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, where the Colombians are considered clear favorites with odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament will likely be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen its position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five leaders.
My expert assessment: The Polymarket market has once again demonstrated its sensitivity to real sporting events. Spain's fall is not a catastrophe but a correction. The team has every chance to regain its position in the following rounds. However, the current shift in favor of France looks logical: Deschamps' team has a stable lineup and excellent tournament form. The main takeaway is that in this championship, the intrigue remains until the very end, and decentralized prediction markets allow these changes to be recorded in real-time with high accuracy.