Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and short-term holder calm
The Bitcoin market continues to show a consolidation phase, despite positive macroeconomic signals, such as reduced geopolitical risks due to the agreement between the US and Iran, which eased tensions in the global energy sector. However, the price of the first cryptocurrency stubbornly holds below the $66,000 mark. The main reason is concerns related to potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Pressure from Strategy: Risks for Bitcoin
Analysts at QCP Capital emphasize that Strategy may be forced to sell part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This becomes particularly relevant after the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. Although the company continues to issue shares and increase its growth potential, this optimism could backfire on the market. If Strategy starts actively selling, it will create additional pressure on BTC quotes, reinforcing the current sideways dynamics.
Short-Term Holders: Fragile Calm
Alongside this, data from CryptoQuant (COINDREAM team) shows that short-term holders remain relatively calm. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors is at 0.995, indicating minor losses but not panic. The metric holds above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95. Analysts note that the current market structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than full capitulation. A return of SOPR to the level of 1 would signal improved sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would indicate an increased risk of mass sell-offs.
Altcoins Under Pressure: Five-Year High in Selling
While Bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is much more alarming. Researchers at IT Tech have recorded that selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, the metric nearly returned to zero, but then sharply reversed and has been steadily declining since.
Expert View
Bitcoin's consolidation amid macroeconomic stability and simultaneous pressure from a major player is a classic example of a battle between bulls and bears. However, the current pressure on altcoins, which has reached extreme levels, suggests that capital is flowing into safer assets, and BTC remains the main beneficiary of this process. As long as the short-term holder SOPR does not fall below 0.95, we can talk about maintaining a fragile equilibrium.