France's national team has surged to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner have been reshuffled after Spain's sensational draw.
The decentralized prediction market Polymarket has recorded a sharp shift in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team unexpectedly topped the rankings, displacing Spain from the top spot, which lost its position due to an unexpected goalless draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde.
Before the first round, Spain confidently led in betting volume, but the match result, considered highly unlikely, instantly changed the balance of power. Traders quickly reacted to the disappointing outcome, and the French team seized the lead.
New Balance of Power in the Betting Market
Currently, the contract for France's victory is trading at $0.185, corresponding to an 18.4% probability. The team has slightly strengthened its position over the past day and secured the top spot in the rankings.
Spain has dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. Rounding out the top five are Argentina (11%, $0.116) and England (10%, $0.104).
Portugal also remains in a tight group of favorites — around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the betting market on the tournament winner has already exceeded $2.54 billion, indicating exceptionally high interest in the tournament from the crypto community.
Why Spain Lost Ground
The draw with Cape Verde was one of the biggest surprises of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered unlikely, so the unexpected result hit the Spanish odds hard. However, the market has only cooled on Spain, not ruled them out as a top contender. The team remains in the upper group of favorites and still has a chance to improve its position in upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely bunched together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the Day and Ronaldo's Debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same matchday, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives his debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen its position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five.
My analysis: Prediction markets once again demonstrate their sensitivity to real sports results. Spain's 3% drop after one draw is a strong but not critical correction. France is in good form right now, but the density in the top five is so high that any unexpected result in the group stage could reshuffle the deck again. Keep an eye on contract dynamics — volatility will be high.