Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: seller pressure and macroeconomic backdrop
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to be in a consolidation phase, with the bitcoin price stubbornly holding below the $66,000 mark. Despite positive macroeconomic signals, such as reduced geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran, which lessened the threat to the global energy sector, a powerful restraining factor persists in the market.
Sales by Strategy: The Main Catalyst of Pressure
The key source of concern for investors remains the potential bitcoin sales by the company Strategy. Analysts note that after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029, the company may be forced to sell part of its BTC reserves to finance dividend payments. The paradox of the situation is that, on one hand, Strategy continues to increase its potential through equity issuance, creating optimism, but on the other hand, this very optimism could turn against bitcoin if the company starts actively dumping coins.
Short-Term Holders: Calm Before the Storm?
Interestingly, short-term bitcoin holders are not yet succumbing to panic. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors is at 0.995, indicating only minor losses. This value is still above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95. The current structure points more to a fragile recovery phase rather than total capitulation. If the indicator returns to 1, it will confirm an improvement in sentiment, but a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of growing panic.
Altcoins Under Pressure: Five-Year High for Sellers
While bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is much more dramatic. Selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. A brief glimmer of hope at the beginning of 2025, when the indicator nearly closed to zero, was replaced by a sharp reversal and relentless decline.
My professional opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather a process of accumulating strength before the next move. However, until the uncertainty surrounding sales by Strategy is resolved, the market is unlikely to break out of the current range. Investors should closely monitor the actions of this company — they could become a catalyst for both a sharp decline and subsequent powerful growth if selling pressure eases.