Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis of the reasons for prolonged consolidation
Despite the agreement between the US and Iran somewhat reducing geopolitical risks for global energy, Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range below the $66,000 mark. The main factor restraining growth remains concerns related to potential large-scale sales by Strategy.
The report emphasizes that the company will likely have to sell part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. Constant equity issuance and increasing debt burden, while demonstrating management's optimism, could create excessive pressure on the leading cryptocurrency market in the long term.
However, it is worth noting that the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which is traditionally a positive signal for risk assets. This creates a certain counterbalance to the negative sentiment associated with Strategy's actions.
Short-Term Holders Remain Calm
Analysts at CryptoQuant, particularly the COINDREAM team, are paying attention to the behavior of short-term holders. Their SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator is currently at around 0.995. This suggests that this category of investors is only recording minor losses and is not succumbing to panic.
The key "panic threshold" for this indicator is at the 0.95 level. The current situation is described as a fragile recovery phase, not a full-scale capitulation. A return of SOPR to a value of 1 will be the first confirmation of improving sentiment, while a break below the 0.95 level will be an alarming signal, indicating growing fear and a possible wave of liquidations.
Altcoins Under Pressure: Five-Year High in Selling
While Bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market looks much more alarming. Data from IT Tech researchers indicates that selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high.
The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. After a brief recovery to the zero level in early 2025, this indicator has sharply reversed downward again and continues to hit new lows. This points to a sustained and powerful capital outflow from the altcoin sector.
My comment: Bitcoin's prolonged consolidation is a classic struggle between macroeconomic optimism and microstructural risks associated with the actions of large players. As long as pressure from Strategy persists and altcoins continue to bleed, a breakout above $66,000 will be extremely difficult. Investors should focus on fundamental factors rather than searching for the perfect entry point.