Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calm among short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show a sideways movement phase, stuck below the $66,000 mark. Despite the positive macroeconomic backdrop driven by reduced geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran, pressure from major players remains a key factor restraining growth.
The main source of uncertainty now is the company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). Concerns are related to the possibility that the corporation may need to sell part of its bitcoins to finance dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the buyback of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. The paradox is that aggressive equity issuance and the buildup of growth potential, which previously fueled optimism, could now backfire against BTC under current conditions, creating additional supply on the market.
However, the macroeconomic picture is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally benefits risk assets. This is also confirmed by the behavior of short-term holders. According to CryptoQuant data, the SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating minor losses but not panic. The key "panic threshold" is located at the 0.95 level, and the current situation resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. A return of the indicator to 1 will signal an improvement in sentiment, while a break below 0.95 will warn of growing fear.
While bitcoin maintains an appearance of stability, the altcoin market is experiencing a real wave of selling. Data from IT Tech indicates that selling pressure has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and ETH, has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. After a brief recovery to the zero level at the beginning of 2025, the indicator has again sharply turned negative and continues to decline.
My view: The market is at a bifurcation point. On one hand, macroeconomic stability and the absence of panic among short-term holders create a foundation for growth. On the other hand, potential sales by Strategy and the enormous pressure on altcoins signal a liquidity shift and a possible correction. Investors should closely monitor the actions of major corporate BTC holders — they are currently the main catalyst for movement.