France has surged to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner have shifted dramatically
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a change in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team unexpectedly took the lead, displacing the Spanish, who lost their position after an unexpected draw with Cape Verde in the opening round.
Before the tournament began, Spain confidently held the top spot. However, a goalless draw with a World Cup debutant instantly shifted the balance of power. Traders quickly reacted to the disappointing result, and the French team seized the lead.
New Balance of Power on Polymarket
Currently, the contract for France's victory is trading at $0.185, corresponding to 18.4% of the total betting volume. Spain has dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina (11%, $0.116) and England (10%, $0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites — also around 10% at a price of $0.103.
The total volume of the betting market on the tournament winner has already exceeded $2.54 billion, highlighting the enormous interest in this event from the crypto community.
Why Did Spain Lose the Lead?
The draw with Cape Verde became one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the unexpected result dealt a heavy blow to the Spanish odds. Nevertheless, the market has not written them off from the list of main contenders — the team remains in the top group of favorites and retains a chance to improve their position in the following matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely bunched together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the Day and Ronaldo's Debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is valued at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same game day, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen its position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five leaders.
Analyst's opinion: The Polymarket prediction market once again demonstrates its sensitivity to real sporting events. Spain's draw is a classic example of how one unexpected result can reshape the entire betting tournament table. However, the Spanish should not be written off: the density at the top of the ranking suggests that the fight for the title is just beginning, and each subsequent round could bring new surprises.