Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysts named two main reasons for consolidation
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, despite a decrease in geopolitical risks. The agreement between the US and Iran, which was supposed to ease some tensions in the energy sector, failed to push Bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. The reason is lingering concerns about large-scale sales from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
In my estimation, the pressure on the market is precisely due to the corporate factor. The company may need to sell off part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments, especially after redeeming $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox is that Strategy's strategy of issuing shares and increasing growth potential could backfire — excessive optimism may ultimately result in additional pressure on the BTC price.
Short-term holders remain calm
Against the backdrop of macroeconomic stabilization, which benefits risk assets, the behavior of short-term investors remains restrained. Analysts at CryptoQuant from the COINDREAM team note that the SOPR indicator for this category of holders is fluctuating near the 0.995 mark, indicating only minor losses.
This is an extremely important signal. The indicator is holding firmly above the "panic threshold" of 0.95. The current market structure points to a fragile recovery phase, not a full capitulation. A return of SOPR to 1.0 would confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment, while a break below 0.95 would be a warning sign, signaling a rise in panic sentiment.
Altcoins under five-year pressure
While Bitcoin maintains relative stability, a real drama is unfolding in the altcoin market. Data from IT Tech researchers shows that selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
Particularly telling is the sharp reversal at the beginning of 2025: the indicator almost closed at the zero level, but then rapidly turned negative, continuing its decline. This points to a deep structural imbalance in the altcoin market, which is unlikely to resolve quickly.
My expert opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation is a temporary calm before the storm. Corporate risks from Strategy and unprecedented pressure on altcoins create an extremely volatile configuration. Investors should closely watch the $60,000 level: a break below it could trigger a cascade of liquidations, potentially accelerating the move to a new bottom. However, if short-term holders continue to hold, and the macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable, the current consolidation could become a springboard for the next rally.