France has overtaken Spain as the leader in bets on the winner of the 2026 World Cup on Polymarket.
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a shift in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team has taken the lead after Spain's unexpected draw with Cape Verde caused its odds to plummet.
Before the opening round, Spain confidently topped the rankings, but a goalless draw with a tournament debutant quickly changed the landscape. Traders immediately priced in the disappointing result, and France seized the lead.
How the championship bets have changed
According to Polymarket, bets on France winning the tournament now account for 18.4%. The contract for their championship is trading at $0.185. The team has slightly gained over the past day and solidified its position at the top.
Spain has dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104).
Rounding out the group of favorites is Portugal, also at around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner market has exceeded $2.54 billion, reflecting high interest in the tournament.
Why Spain lost ground
Spain's draw with Cape Verde became one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the unexpected result dealt a heavy blow to the Spanish odds.
However, the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated it from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains a chance to improve its position in upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely bunched together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 versus $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same game day, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen its position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five leaders.
My take: The Polymarket market shows high sensitivity to group stage results, making it an excellent sentiment indicator. However, don't count Spain out just yet—a draw with an underdog could serve as a wake-up call rather than a fatal mistake. Keep an eye on the odds dynamics after each round—this is where the most profitable bets are born.