Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis of consolidation reasons and signals from holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, staying below the key level of $66,000. In my opinion, the current consolidation is not a coincidence, but a result of a combination of macroeconomic and intra-market factors. On one hand, the recent agreement between the US and Iran has reduced geopolitical risks, which is positive for global energy. However, Bitcoin is not rushing to grow due to lingering concerns related to the actions of one of the largest corporate holders — the company Strategy.
Analysts note that Strategy may be forced to sell part of its Bitcoin holdings to finance dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the buyback of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. The paradox is that the company itself continues to increase its potential through stock issuance, but this optimism could backfire on the market if sales actually begin. However, macroeconomic stability is currently playing in favor of risk assets.
Behavior of short-term holders: calm without panic
Data from CryptoQuant by the COINDREAM team shows that short-term investors remain composed. The SOPR indicator for this category is currently around 0.995, indicating minor losses but not mass panic. The key level to monitor is 0.95. As long as it is not breached, the market is in a phase of fragile recovery, not capitulation. A return of the indicator to the 1 mark will signal an improvement in sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 will indicate increased risk.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While Bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is alarming. According to data from IT Tech researchers, selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. Interestingly, at the beginning of 2025, the indicator almost returned to zero, but then sharply reversed and continues to decline.
In my opinion, this signals a flow of liquidity from altcoins into more stable assets or fiat. While Bitcoin holds its positions, altcoins may remain under pressure, creating risk for the overall market. CIO of Bitwise, Matt Hougan, previously urged long-term investors not to fixate on finding the bottom, but to look toward the next bull cycle. Perhaps this is sound advice in the current conditions, as the market searches for a new catalyst for growth.
My analysis: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather a preparation for the next move. However, pressure on altcoins and potential sales by Strategy require caution. Long-term investors should ignore short-term noise and focus on fundamental indicators.