France surges to the lead in the 2026 World Cup on Polymarket: bets rewritten after the Spain sensation
The Polymarket prediction market has seen a sharp shift in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The French national team, holding 18.4% of all bets, has overtaken Spain, which unexpectedly lost ground due to a goalless draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde. The contract for France's championship is currently trading at $0.185, reflecting a confident, albeit minimal, increase over the past day.
Spain loses points and trader confidence
Before the opening round, Spain was confidently leading the Polymarket rankings. However, a sensational draw with a group outsider instantly changed the landscape. Traders reacted swiftly to the disappointing result: Spain's share of bets dropped by about 3 percentage points, falling to 13%. The contract price now stands at around $0.134. Nevertheless, it is too early to rule out "La Roja" from the top contenders — the team still holds a place in the upper echelon of favorites.
Following the leaders are Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five, also at around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner market has already exceeded $2.54 billion, confirming the immense interest in the tournament from the crypto community.
Ronaldo's debut and key matches of the day
June 17 is a landmark date for Portugal: their captain Cristiano Ronaldo takes the field in what is likely his last World Cup. The match against DR Congo shows a clear imbalance on Polymarket: a Portuguese win is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17. A successful start could significantly strengthen Portugal's position in the title race, where they currently round out the top five.
On the same matchday, England will face Croatia ($0.58 for a British win), Ghana will play Panama, and Uzbekistan will take on Colombia, where the Colombians are clear favorites with odds of $0.72.
Analytical commentary: The Polymarket market is showing a classic reaction to the "shock" of the first round — an overcorrection in favor of France. However, Spain remains a team with a very deep squad, and I expect their odds to partially recover as the tournament progresses. The main risk for the current leader, France, is the density at the top of the table: any slip-up in the group stage could instantly return Spain or Argentina to the top spot. Keep an eye on the dynamics — here, every match rewrites history.