Bitcoin Consolidation: Pressure from Strategy and Calmness of Short-Term Holders
The market for the first cryptocurrency continues to be in a consolidation phase, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran. Bitcoin is holding below the $66,000 mark, and the key factor restraining growth remains concerns related to potential new sales by Strategy.
The company will likely need to raise additional funds to finance dividend payments, especially after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox of the situation is that Strategy's own strategy of issuing shares and increasing growth potential could ultimately work against bitcoin. Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop is showing signs of stabilization, which is traditionally a positive signal for risk assets.
Short-term holders remain calm
An analysis of short-term investor behavior conducted by the COINDREAM team from CryptoQuant shows that there is no panic in the market. The SOPR indicator for this category of holders is near the 0.995 level, indicating only minor unrealized losses. The key "panic threshold" is located at the 0.95 level, and the current value points to a fragile recovery phase, rather than a full capitulation. A return of the indicator to the 1.0 level would confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment, while a break below 0.95 would be an alarming signal.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is much more tense. According to IT Tech researchers, selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and ETH, has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. A brief recovery of this indicator to the zero level in early 2025 was followed by a sharp reversal, after which the decline continued unabated.
My opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation at current levels is a game of nerves. The market is waiting for a clear signal from Strategy, but the long-term outlook remains bullish. Pressure on altcoins, on the contrary, indicates a flow of liquidity into safer assets, which is a classic sign of a mature bear market for "second-tier" assets. Investors should focus on fundamental indicators, rather than trying to catch the bottom.