France surges to the lead in bets for the 2026 World Cup winner on Polymarket.
The decentralized prediction market Polymarket has recorded a change in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. France has overtaken Spain to lead the ranking of contenders after Spain's unexpected draw with Cape Verde.
Before the tournament started, Spain confidently held the lead, but a goalless draw with a tournament debutant dramatically shifted the balance of power. Traders immediately reacted to the disappointing result, and now France accounts for 18.4% of all bets. The contract for their championship is trading at $0.185.
How the odds have changed
Spain has dropped to second place with a probability of 13% and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites—also around 10% with a contract price of $0.103.
The total volume of the betting market on the winner has already exceeded $2.54 billion, reflecting enormous interest in the tournament. It is important to emphasize: the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The density at the top of the ranking is extremely high, and any result in the group stage could reshuffle the cards again.
Ronaldo's debut and matches of the day
On June 17, the spotlight is on Portugal's debut and their captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same matchday, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which adds special significance to the debut match. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen their position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five leaders.
My analysis: The Polymarket prediction market shows high sensitivity to group stage results. Spain's draw with Cape Verde is a classic example of how one unexpected outcome can redistribute billions of dollars in bets. However, don't count the Spanish out: the density at the top of the table remains critically high, and the situation could change after each round.