Crypto news

The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways dynamics, despite positive macroeconomic signals. The key brake on Bitcoin's rise above the $66,000 mark remains pressure from one of the largest corporate holders — Strategy. The easing of geopolitical risks after the agreement between the US and Iran reduced tensions in the energy sector, but this was not enough for a breakout.

Investors' main concern is related to the potential need for Strategy to sell bitcoins to finance dividend payments. This issue became particularly acute after the company repurchased convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. The paradox is that Strategy's aggressive equity issuance, aimed at expanding its potential, could ultimately work against the market by creating additional BTC supply.

However, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally supports risk assets. Against this background, the behavior of short-term holders is of interest. According to CryptoQuant data, the SOPR indicator for this category of investors is at 0.995, indicating minor losses but not panic. The indicator is confidently holding above the critical "fear threshold" of 0.95.

The current market structure resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. A return of SOPR to 1.0 will be the first confirmation of improved sentiment. Conversely, a break below 0.95 will signal growing panic among short-term speculators.

Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in sales

While Bitcoin shows relative stability, the altcoin market is experiencing extreme selling pressure. The cumulative difference between spot market buy and sell volumes for all cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and ETH, has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, this indicator almost reached a neutral level, but then a sharp reversal followed, and the decline has not stopped since.

This indicates a deep structural imbalance: liquidity is leaving altcoins, and investors prefer to hold funds in more reliable assets. While Bitcoin consolidates, altcoins are effectively in a prolonged distribution phase.

My view: Bitcoin's consolidation is not just a calm before the storm, but a period of capital redistribution. While institutional players like Strategy solve their financial tasks, retail investors and short-term holders are balancing on the edge. The key trigger for exiting the range will be either the complete removal of pressure from Strategy or a sharp macroeconomic shift. As for altcoins, judging by current data, they will have to endure more than one wave of sell-offs before the market finds a bottom.