France has overtaken the lead on Polymarket in the race for the 2026 World Cup title.
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a change in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. France has overtaken Spain for the top spot, capitalizing on an unexpected stumble by "La Roja" in the opening round.
Before the tournament began, Spain was confidently leading the odds, but a goalless draw against debutants Cape Verde immediately shifted the balance of power. Traders instantly priced in the disappointing result, and France surged ahead.
New Odds: France at the Top
The contract for France to win now accounts for 18.4% of all bets, with the asset itself trading at $0.185. Spain has dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a price of around $0.134, losing approximately 3 percentage points in a single day. They are followed by Argentina (11%, $0.116) and England (10%, $0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites, also at around 10% with a contract price of $0.103.
The total volume of the market for bets on the World Cup winner has already exceeded $2.54 billion, confirming the enormous interest in the tournament from the crypto community.
Why Spain Lost Ground
The draw with Cape Verde was one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered highly unlikely, so the unexpected result dealt a heavy blow to Spain's odds. However, the market has merely cooled on Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains the chance to improve their standing in upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are clustered closely together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the Day and Ronaldo's Debut
The focus on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and their captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same matchday, England faces Croatia, where the British team is the favorite with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play Panama, and Uzbekistan will face Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives his debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen their position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five leaders.
My view: Prediction markets are the perfect indicator of "instant" reactions to events. Spain's fall after the draw with Cape Verde is a classic example of how one unexpected result can reshape the entire favorites table. But don't count the Spaniards out: the tightness of the odds in the top five suggests the battle will be intense right up to the final. Let's watch the dynamics — Polymarket offers a unique opportunity to see how money "votes" for the future champion in real time.