Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calmness of short-term holders
The market for the first cryptocurrency continues its consolidation phase, despite positive macroeconomic signals. The agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risks for the energy sector, failed to push Bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. The main drag remains concerns related to potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Pressure from Strategy: The Threat of New Sales
Analysts at QCP Capital point out that the company may be forced to sell off part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This becomes especially relevant after the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The strategy of continuous stock issuance and increasing debt, which previously fueled optimism, could now turn against the market. If Strategy begins large-scale sales, it will create excess supply and increase pressure on the BTC price.
Short-Term Holders: Fragile Calm
In parallel, data from CryptoQuant (COINDREAM team) shows that short-term investors are not yet panicking. The SOPR indicator for this category of holders stands at 0.995, indicating minor losses. The metric remains above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95. The current structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than full capitulation. A return of SOPR to the 1.0 level would confirm improved sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of growing fear and a potential crash.
Altcoins Under Pressure: Five-Year Record of Selling
Against the backdrop of relative Bitcoin stability, the altcoin market is experiencing extreme pressure. Researchers at IT Tech from CryptoQuant have recorded that the cumulative difference between buying and selling volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC and ETH) has hit a five-year low. The negative zone has persisted for 15 consecutive months. In early 2025, the indicator nearly returned to zero, but then sharply reversed downward and continues to fall. This suggests that investors are actively dumping altcoins, shifting into safer assets or fiat.
My Comment: The market situation resembles a classic phase of capital redistribution. Bitcoin stays afloat due to institutional interest and halving expectations, but altcoins are losing support. If the pressure from Strategy materializes, we could see a sharp BTC correction to $60,000, which would trigger panic selling in the altcoin market as well. For now, short-term holders are showing remarkable resilience — this is the only positive signal in the current environment.