France surges to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner reshuffled
On the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, there has been a sharp shift in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team, thanks to an unexpected stumble by its main competitor, has taken the lead in the betting race.
Spanish Stumble and the Rise of "Les Bleus"
Before the tournament started, Spain confidently held the lead, but a goalless draw with tournament debutants Cape Verde instantly changed the balance of power. Traders on Polymarket quickly reacted to the disappointing result, and now France accounts for 18.4% of all bets, with a contract price of $0.185.
Spain has dropped to second place with a probability of 13% (contract price around $0.134), losing approximately 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five — also around 10% at a price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner betting market has already exceeded $2.54 billion, indicating enormous interest in the tournament.
Why Spain Lost Ground
The draw with Cape Verde became one of the main sensations of the round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered highly unlikely, so the unexpected result hit the Spanish odds hard. However, the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains a chance to improve their position in the upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely bunched together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the Day and Ronaldo's Debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same matchday, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament will likely be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen its position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five.
Expert opinion: Prediction markets like Polymarket are becoming an increasingly sensitive barometer of public opinion and real sports events. The sharp drop in Spain's odds after a single draw demonstrates how volatile these decentralized liquidity pools are. However, one should not write off the Spaniards — over a long tournament distance, a single bad match is rarely fatal, and the market will likely adjust its assessments as the group stage progresses.