Why Bitcoin is stuck below $66,000: an analysis of key consolidation factors
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks. The agreement between the US and Iran, which was supposed to ease tensions in the global energy sector, did not become a catalyst for Bitcoin's growth. In my opinion, the main reason is the lingering fears regarding possible large-scale sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
The company will likely have to sell off part of its Bitcoin reserves to cover dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the recent buyback of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. Paradoxically, Strategy's aggressive equity issuance, which is usually perceived as a bullish signal, could turn into a bearish factor under current conditions.
Short-term holders remain calm
Analysis of on-chain metrics shows that there is no panic among short-term investors yet. The SOPR indicator for this category of holders is at 0.995, indicating minimal losses. The critical "panic threshold" level is at 0.95, and the current value is significantly above it.
The current market structure resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. A return of SOPR to the level of 1 will be the first signal of improving sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 will indicate growing fear and potential sell-offs.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While Bitcoin maintains relative stability, the altcoin market is experiencing serious pressure. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, the indicator almost reached the zero mark, but then sharply reversed downward and continues to fall.
Expert opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather an accumulation of strength before the next significant move. While institutional players like Strategy are dealing with their corporate tasks and altcoins are bleeding, BTC is showing remarkable resilience. Long-term investors should focus less on finding the perfect entry point and more on the overall macroeconomic picture, which is gradually becoming more favorable for risk assets.