Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and calm among short-term holders
The Bitcoin market continues its consolidation phase despite positive macroeconomic signals. The agreement between the US and Iran reduced geopolitical risks for the energy sector, but the leading cryptocurrency failed to break through the $66,000 mark. The key factor restraining growth is concerns related to potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
According to my analysis, the company may be forced to sell off part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. Strategy continues to actively issue shares, increasing its growth potential, but this optimism could backfire on the market. Each new share issuance increases the risk that the company will be forced to sell BTC to meet its obligations, creating additional downward pressure on the price.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic situation is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally benefits risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Short-term holders remain calm
Data from CryptoQuant by the COINDREAM team shows that short-term Bitcoin holders are not panicking. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating only minor losses. This metric is holding firmly above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95.
The current market structure resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. A return of SOPR to the 1 level would signal an improvement in short-term sentiment. If the indicator falls below 0.95, it would point to an increased risk of mass panic selling.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While Bitcoin shows relative stability, altcoins are experiencing a real storm. Selling pressure in this market segment has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
Particularly telling was the moment in early 2025, when this metric nearly closed at the zero level. However, a sharp reversal followed, and since then the downward trend has only intensified. This suggests that investors continue to offload altcoins, shifting into more liquid assets or locking in losses.
My comment: Bitcoin's consolidation is a classic situation where positive macroeconomic factors clash with microstructural risks from major players. Until Strategy clarifies its sales plans, the market will remain in limbo. For long-term investors, the current situation is more of an accumulation opportunity than a reason to panic. Altcoins, judging by the data, are in a deep phase of capital redistribution, and this could drag on.