Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis of Strategy pressure and short-term holder resilience
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, despite positive macroeconomic signals. The agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risks in the energy sector, failed to push Bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. The main restraining factor is concerns related to potential new sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
My analysis of data from leading research groups shows that corporate activity remains a key threat to BTC's growth. The company may need to realize part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments, especially after the recent buyback of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion maturing in 2029. The paradox is that Strategy's aggressive equity issuance, aimed at increasing its potential, could ultimately backfire on Bitcoin's price, creating additional pressure on the market.
Calmness of Short-Term Holders as a Key Indicator
However, not everything is so clear-cut. The COINDREAM team from CryptoQuant records surprising calm among short-term holders (STH). The SOPR indicator for this category of investors is currently at 0.995, indicating only minor unrealized losses. This metric is confidently holding above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95.
The current market structure, in my opinion, points to a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. A return of SOPR to the level of 1 will be the first confirmation of improved short-term sentiment. Conversely, a drop of the indicator below 0.95 will be an alarming signal, indicating a rise in panic among speculators.
Pressure on Altcoins Reaches Extremes
While Bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is causing serious concern. Data from IT Tech researchers shows that selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
Particularly indicative is the sharp reversal of this indicator at the beginning of 2025: after almost completely closing at the zero level, it has again headed downward and continues to fall. This points to a systematic outflow of liquidity from altcoins, which could foreshadow further correction in this segment.
Expert opinion: The market is in a "wait-and-see" phase. While macroeconomic stabilization favors risk assets, internal corporate risks from large holders such as Strategy create local pressure. Investors should closely monitor the company's actions and the SOPR level — these two factors are currently determining Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.