Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and macro stability as consolidation factors
The market for the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks. The agreement between the US and Iran, which could have served as a catalyst for growth, failed to push Bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. The main reason is lingering concerns about potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
In my estimation, the company may be forced to sell off part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. Strategy's strategy of constant equity issuance and increasing debt load creates a potential risk: the optimism surrounding their business model could ultimately put pressure on the BTC market.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic picture is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally favors risk assets. This partially offsets the negative impact from corporate factors.
Short-term holders hold firm: SOPR signals fragile equilibrium
Data from CryptoQuant shows that short-term investors are not yet panicking. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator for this category of market participants stands at 0.995, indicating minimal losses when realizing positions. The key "panic threshold" is located at the 0.95 level, and the current value is significantly above it.
This structure suggests a phase of fragile recovery rather than mass capitulation. A return of SOPR to the 1 level would signal an improvement in short-term sentiment. Conversely, a break below 0.95 would indicate a sharp rise in fear and a potential wave of sell-offs.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in sellers
Against the backdrop of relative stability in Bitcoin, the situation in the altcoin market looks much more alarming. According to analysts at IT Tech, selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year extreme. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has remained negative for 15 consecutive months.
At the beginning of 2025, this indicator almost recovered to zero, offering hope for a trend reversal. However, a sharp reversal followed, and since then the indicator has been steadily declining, confirming a sustained capital outflow from the altcoin sector.
My conclusion: The current consolidation of Bitcoin is not a sign of weakness, but rather a period of accumulation before the next significant move. However, the risks associated with the actions of major corporate players like Strategy and the ongoing pressure on altcoins require investors to exercise increased caution. As long as short-term holders do not show panic, the market has a chance for recovery, but the key level for confirming a bullish scenario remains the $66,000 mark and above.