France has surged to the lead for the 2026 World Cup on Polymarket: Spain loses ground after a sensational draw
The decentralized prediction market Polymarket has recorded a sharp shift in the favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The French national team has taken the top spot, pushing Spain aside after their chances plummeted following an unexpected goalless draw with Cape Verde in the opening round. This outcome instantly reshaped the odds, and traders quickly reacted to the disappointing result for the Spaniards.
Before the tournament began, Spain confidently led the rankings, but the match against the World Cup debutants brought adjustments. Now, France accounts for 18.4% of all bets, with the contract for their championship trading at $0.185. The team has slightly improved over the past day and secured the top spot, indicating a consolidation of market opinion around Didier Deschamps' squad.
How the balance of power has changed
Spain has dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about three percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites — also at around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner market has exceeded $2.54 billion, confirming the enormous interest in the tournament from the crypto community.
It is important to emphasize: the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains a chance to improve their position in upcoming matches. The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight: France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely packed together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and their captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17. For Ronaldo, this tournament is likely to be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start could strengthen Portugal's position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five leaders.
On the same matchday, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan will face Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
Analytical commentary: The reshuffling of forces on Polymarket is a clear example of how one unexpected result can instantly redistribute billions of dollars in liquidity. Spain remains in the game, but a psychological blow to their odds has already been dealt. France, on the other hand, is showing stability, and if they continue in the same vein, their lead could only grow. Keep a close eye on the dynamics of the contracts — in the group stage, every match can drastically change the landscape.