Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and macroeconomic backdrop
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to be in a sideways phase, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks. The agreement between the US and Iran, which was expected to ease tensions in the energy sector, did not become a catalyst for Bitcoin's growth. The main brake on the price remains the potential pressure from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
My analysis shows that the company may be forced to sell part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the repurchase of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. The paradox is that Strategy's very strategy of issuing shares to increase Bitcoin reserves, which was previously perceived as a bullish signal, could now turn against the market.
However, the macroeconomic picture is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally favors risk assets. This provides fundamental support for BTC, but is still insufficient for a breakout above the key level.
Short-term holders remain calm
Data from CryptoQuant by the COINDREAM team shows that short-term investors are not panicking. The SOPR indicator for this category stands at 0.995, indicating minimal losses. The current structure signals a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation.
Key levels to watch: a return of SOPR to 1.0 would confirm improved sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of growing panic.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While Bitcoin shows relative stability, the altcoin market is experiencing serious stress. Researchers at IT Tech have recorded that selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
Particularly telling is the sharp reversal of this indicator in early 2025, after which the decline only intensified. This points to a structural capital outflow from altcoins, which may indicate a redistribution of funds towards more liquid assets or a general cooling of interest in second-tier risk assets.
My expert assessment: The current consolidation of Bitcoin is not a sign of weakness, but rather an accumulation phase before the next significant move. However, the key factor that will determine the direction of the breakout is the further policy of Strategy. If the company begins large-scale sales, we could see a correction to $60,000. Otherwise, with macroeconomic stability maintained, Bitcoin has every chance to test $70,000 in the coming weeks.