France has overtaken the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup are rewriting the script
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a sharp shift in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team has surged ahead, displacing Spain from the top spot after the latter's unexpected draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde.
Before the opening round, Spain confidently held the position of the main contender for the trophy. However, a goalless draw with an underdog instantly changed the balance of power. Traders immediately reacted to the disappointing result, and the French team capitalized on this, rising to the top of the rankings.
New Odds: Who is Now at the Top?
According to Polymarket data, France now accounts for 18.4% of all bets. The contract for their championship is trading at $0.185. The team has slightly increased over the past day and has secured the first place. Spain has dropped to second position with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day.
Next are Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites — also around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner market has already exceeded $2.54 billion, confirming the enormous interest in the tournament.
Why Did Spain Lose Ground?
The draw with Cape Verde was one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the unexpected result hit the Spanish odds hard. However, the market has only cooled towards Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains a chance to improve their position in upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely bunched together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the Day and Ronaldo's Debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same matchday, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen their position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five leaders.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: Prediction markets once again demonstrate their sensitivity to unexpected results. Spain's draw with Cape Verde is a classic example of how a single event can rewrite the entire probability structure. However, one should not write off the Spanish: the density at the top of the table leaves room for maneuver. The key factor will be the stability of the leaders — it is this, rather than individual spikes, that will determine the ultimate winner on these decentralized markets.