Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calmness of short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to experience a consolidation phase. Despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran, which eased fears of an energy crisis, Bitcoin is stubbornly holding below the $66,000 mark. The key factor restraining growth remains expectations of new sales from the company Strategy.
An analysis of the current situation shows that Strategy may be forced to sell off part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the repurchase of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. The active issuance of shares and the company's increasing growth potential create a paradoxical situation: optimism around Strategy could ultimately exert bearish pressure on Bitcoin itself. However, it is worth noting that the stabilization of the macroeconomic environment favors risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Short-Term Holders: Calm Before the Storm?
According to data from the analytical platform CryptoQuant, the COINDREAM team is recording interesting dynamics among short-term holders (STH). The SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating minor losses but no panic sentiment.
The key panic threshold is located at the 0.95 level, and the current value of 0.995 suggests a fragile recovery phase rather than a full market capitulation. A return of the indicator to the 1 level would signal an improvement in short-term sentiment. At the same time, a break below 0.95 would indicate a sharp rise in fear and a potential wave of sell-offs.
Altcoins Under Pressure: Five-Year High in Selling
While Bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is significantly more alarming. Data from IT Tech researchers shows that selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high.
The aggregate difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, this indicator nearly recovered to zero, but then sharply reversed and has been declining ever since. This points to a systematic outflow of liquidity from altcoins.
My expert conclusion: Bitcoin's consolidation is not just a "sideways movement," but a complex struggle of opposing forces. On one hand, the macroeconomic backdrop is improving; on the other, institutional pressure from Strategy and the weakness of altcoins create structural risks. While short-term holders remain calm for now, a prolonged consolidation could lead to a shift in sentiment. Investors should closely monitor the SOPR level and Strategy's actions — these two factors will likely determine the direction of Bitcoin's movement in the coming weeks.