France has surged to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner have been rewritten after the Spain sensation.
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a sharp shift in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team now holds the top spot, overtaking Spain, which lost ground after an unexpected draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde.
Before the opening round, Spain was confidently leading the rankings, but a goalless draw with an underdog instantly changed the landscape. Traders immediately reacted to the disappointing result, and the French team seized the initiative.
How the odds changed
France's victory in the tournament now accounts for 18.4% of all bets, with the contract for their championship trading at $0.185. The team slightly improved over the day and secured the top position. Spain dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about three percentage points in a day.
Next are Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites—also around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the betting market on the winner has already exceeded $2.54 billion, reflecting enormous interest in the tournament.
Why Spain lost ground
Spain's draw with Cape Verde was one of the biggest surprises of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered highly unlikely, so the unexpected result dealt a heavy blow to the Spanish odds. Nevertheless, the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains chances to improve their position in upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely clustered, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same match day, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives special significance to the debut match. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen their position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five leaders.
My analysis: The Polymarket market demonstrates high sensitivity to unexpected results, making it an effective sentiment indicator. Spain's draw is a classic example of how one match can rewrite the entire hierarchy of favorites. However, don't count the Spaniards out: the tightness of the odds suggests that the title fight will be extremely intense, and any next round could return them to the top.