Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis reveals the true reasons for consolidation
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways dynamics, despite positive macroeconomic signals. The agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risks for the energy sector, failed to push bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. The main brake is concerns related to the actions of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
According to my data, the key pressure factor is possible new BTC sales by Strategy. The company may need to sell off some of its crypto assets to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The irony of the situation is that Strategy's active equity issuance to increase its crypto potential creates a long-term "bearish" backdrop: excessive investor optimism could backfire on bitcoin itself.
Short-term holders are holding firm
At the same time, an interesting picture is emerging among short-term investors. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator for this category is at 0.995, indicating minimal losses. This is far from the panic zone, which begins at the 0.95 level.
The current structure points to a fragile recovery phase, not mass capitulation. A return of the indicator to the level of 1 will be the first confirmation of improving sentiment. If the SOPR breaks below 0.95, it will be a clear signal of growing panic and a potential crash.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year record in sales
While bitcoin maintains relative stability, altcoins are experiencing a real storm. Selling pressure has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
The chart is particularly telling: at the beginning of 2025, the indicator almost returned to zero, but then sharply reversed and has been falling ever since. This suggests that capital is fleeing risky second-tier assets, concentrating in bitcoin and ether — or leaving the market entirely.
My expert conclusion: Bitcoin's consolidation is not the calm before the storm, but rather a "cleansing" of the market from weak hands. While major players like Strategy create pressure through sales, and altcoins are bleeding, bitcoin is holding surprisingly strong. This is a classic sign that institutional money is eyeing the asset, waiting for a clearer signal. Long-term investors should not be looking for a bottom right now — it is far more important to watch the accumulation phase and prepare for the next bull cycle.