Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and short-term holder calm
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show consolidation, despite the reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran. The main factor holding back Bitcoin's growth remains concerns related to potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Analysts note that the company may be forced to sell part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This becomes especially relevant after the buyback of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion maturing in 2029. Although Strategy is actively boosting its growth potential through share issuance, this optimism could backfire on the market in the event of large-scale sales.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally favors risk assets. However, as long as Bitcoin cannot break through the $66,000 mark, the market remains in a state of uncertainty.
Short-term holders remain calm
Data from CryptoQuant shows that short-term investors are not panicking. The SOPR indicator for this category of market participants stands at 0.995, indicating minor losses. The key "panic threshold" is at 0.95, and the current structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than full capitulation.
A return of the indicator to the 1 level would confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of growing panic.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While Bitcoin maintains relative stability, the altcoin market is experiencing serious pressure. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the start of 2025, the indicator nearly returned to zero, but then sharply reversed and continues to decline, reaching a five-year extreme.
My expert opinion: The current situation resembles a classic accumulation phase, where institutional players pressure the market to shake out weak hands. However, the pressure on altcoins is concerning — if panic spreads to Bitcoin, we could see a sharp drop below $60,000. For now, a long-term holding strategy seems more justified than attempts to catch the bottom.