Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calm among short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency is showing a consolidation phase, despite a positive macroeconomic backdrop. The agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risks in the energy sector, failed to push bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. The main restraining factor is the fear of new sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
An analysis of the situation shows that the company may be forced to sell part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. Especially after the redemption of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The strategy of issuing shares and increasing debt, which Strategy uses, creates a hidden risk: it momentarily fuels optimism, but under certain circumstances, it could backfire against BTC.
The calm of short-term holders is a key signal
Against this pressure, short-term holders are demonstrating remarkable composure. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors is at 0.995, indicating minimal losses. This is a zone of fragile recovery, not panic capitulation.
The panic threshold is at 0.95, and we are still far from it. The indicator returning to 1 will be the first confirmation of improving sentiment. If SOPR breaks below 0.95, it will signal growing fear and a potential wave of sell-offs.
Altcoins under pressure: a five-year high in selling
The situation in the altcoin market looks much more alarming. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, the indicator nearly closed to zero, but then sharply reversed and continues to fall, reaching a five-year extreme.
This suggests that investors are actively taking profits or exiting altcoins, shifting into more liquid assets. Bitcoin is still maintaining relative stability, but the selling pressure from altcoins creates an additional backdrop of uncertainty for the entire market.
My view: BTC's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather a pause before the next move. Strategy's strategy is a double-edged sword, but fundamental macroeconomic factors (reduced geopolitical risks) favor risk assets. Investors should closely monitor the SOPR of short-term holders: its return to 1 will be a trigger for renewed growth. A drop below 0.95 is a red flag for the entire market.