France has surged to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner have shifted dramatically
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a sharp change in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. France has overtaken Spain to take the top spot in the ranking of likely winners. This shift is a direct consequence of an unexpected result in the opening round, where the Spanish team failed to beat tournament debutant Cape Verde.
Before the championship began, Spain confidently led in betting volume. However, a goalless draw with an underdog instantly changed traders' sentiment. Market participants quickly reassessed their positions, and now the contract for France's victory is trading at $0.185, corresponding to an 18.4% probability. Spain has dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about three percentage points in a day.
Top 5 Contenders: A Tight Race
Following the leaders are Argentina with 11% ($0.116), England with 10% ($0.104), and Portugal, also at around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total market volume for bets on the tournament winner has already exceeded $2.54 billion, highlighting the immense interest in this event. The balance of power at the top of the ranking remains extremely tight, and any result in the group stage could drastically change the picture.
Why Did Spain Lose Ground?
The draw with Cape Verde was one of the main sensations of the start. Before the match, such an outcome was considered unlikely, so the unexpected result dealt a heavy blow to the Spanish odds. Nevertheless, the market is not writing Spain off — the team remains in the top group of favorites and retains chances to improve its position in subsequent matches. However, traders' confidence has been shaken, and now the Spanish team must prove its worth on the field.
Matches of the Day and Ronaldo's Debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is valued at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17. For Ronaldo, this tournament will likely be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start could strengthen Portugal's position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five.
On the same game day, England will face Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play Panama, and Uzbekistan will face Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
My analysis: The Polymarket market once again demonstrates its sensitivity to real sporting events. However, it's worth remembering that the group stage is a marathon, not a sprint. Despite the slip-up, Spain remains a formidable force, and the current odds could be of interest to those who believe in its quick recovery. France, on the other hand, has received an additional psychological boost, but maintaining the lead will not be easy — the competition is too high.