Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calm among short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, despite positive macroeconomic signals. The agreement between the US and Iran has reduced geopolitical risks, especially in the energy sector, but bitcoin stubbornly holds below the $66,000 mark. The key reason is concerns related to possible new sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
My analysis shows that the company may be forced to sell part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox of the situation is that Strategy continues to actively issue shares, increasing its growth potential, but this very optimism may ultimately work against bitcoin. The more the company increases its market share, the stronger its actions affect the price.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic picture is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally favors risky assets. This creates a certain counterbalance to the pressure from Strategy.
Short-term holders: no panic, but no joy either
Interesting data comes from the COINDREAM team at CryptoQuant. The SOPR indicator for short-term holders (STH) is currently at 0.995. This indicates minor losses for this category of investors, but more importantly, the indicator is still above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95.
The current structure points to a fragile recovery phase, not a full-scale capitulation. The key signal for bulls is the return of SOPR to the level of 1, which would confirm an improvement in sentiment. If the index falls below 0.95, one should prepare for a new wave of sell-offs and panic among retail investors.
Altcoins: seller pressure at a five-year high
While bitcoin maintains relative stability, the altcoin market is experiencing a real wave of selling. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and ETH, has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. This is a five-year extreme.
At the beginning of 2025, the indicator almost reached zero, giving hope for a trend reversal, but then it sharply reversed and has been declining ever since. This suggests that investors are massively dumping altcoins, moving either into stablecoins, into bitcoin, or simply locking in losses.
My expert opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation in the current range is not a sign of weakness, but rather a period of accumulation before the next major move. The pressure from Strategy is a temporary factor that will be offset as corporate procedures are completed. However, the panic selling of altcoins is a warning sign: if the trend continues, we may see a flow of liquidity exclusively into BTC, which will strengthen its dominance but leave the market's "mid-tier" assets in a deep drawdown.