France has surged to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner have been rewritten
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a sharp shift in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team unexpectedly topped the rankings, displacing Spain, which lost ground after a sensational draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde.
Before the first round, Spain confidently held the top spot, but a goalless draw with an underdog instantly changed the landscape. Traders reacted swiftly, pricing in the disappointing result. As a result, France seized the lead, and its victory is now estimated at an 18.4% probability, with the contract trading at $0.185.
How the Championship Bets Changed
Spain dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites, also at about 10% with a contract price of $0.103.
The total volume of the winner market has already exceeded $2.54 billion, indicating immense interest in the tournament. However, the balance of power remains extremely tight: France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely packed together, and any result in the group stage could instantly reshape the picture.
Why Spain Lost Ground
The draw with Cape Verde became one of the main sensations of the start. Before the match, such an outcome was considered highly unlikely, so the unexpected result hit the Spanish odds hard. Nevertheless, the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated it from the list of main contenders. The team retains chances to improve its position in subsequent matches.
Matches of the Day and Ronaldo's Debut
The focus on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 versus $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same game day, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play Panama, and Uzbekistan will face Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is likely to be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen its position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five leaders.
My analysis: The Polymarket market is sensitive to real sporting events, making it an indicator of crowd sentiment. However, it is worth remembering: in the group stage, one poor match can sharply collapse the odds of even the strongest favorite. Keep an eye on the dynamics—this is where the most profitable bets are born.