Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calm among short-term holders
The agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risks for global energy, failed to pull bitcoin out of its consolidation phase. The leading cryptocurrency continues to hold below the $66,000 mark, with the main reason being fears of potential new sales by Strategy.
Analysts at QCP Capital point out that the company may need to sell off part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox of the situation is that Strategy's active stock issuance and its growing growth potential, usually perceived as a bullish signal, could in this case turn into a bearish factor for the cryptocurrency itself.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally benefits risk assets, including bitcoin.
Short-Term Holders Remain Steadfast
While institutional players create uncertainty, data from CryptoQuant contributors (the COINDREAM team) shows that short-term holders (STH) are keeping their cool. Their SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator is currently near the 0.995 mark, indicating only minor realized losses.
The key "panic threshold" at 0.95 has not been breached yet. The current market structure resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than a full-scale capitulation. A return of the indicator to 1.0 would be the first signal of improving sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would indicate a sharp rise in fear and potential sell-off.
Altcoins Under Pressure at Five-Year High
While bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is much more alarming. According to data from IT Tech researchers, selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
A brief breakout to the zero level in early 2025 turned out to be a false signal — the indicator sharply reversed and has since only intensified the downtrend.
My view: Bitcoin's consolidation is a game of endurance. On one hand, we see a macro trend reversal in favor of risk; on the other, specific actions by large players are holding back growth. As long as the short-term holder SOPR does not show panic, the market has a chance for recovery, but the pressure on altcoins suggests that liquidity is leaving the sector, concentrating in BTC and possibly ETH. Investors should closely monitor Strategy's actions — this is currently the main trigger for price movement.