France has surged to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner have been rewritten
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a change in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team confidently took the top spot after Spain's unexpected draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde crashed the "Red Fury's" odds.
Before the opening round, Spain dominated the rankings, but a goalless draw with a team that only recently qualified for the World Cup instantly changed the landscape. Traders immediately reacted to the disappointing result, and the French team seized the lead.
How have the bets changed?
France's victory in the tournament now accounts for 18.4% of all bets. The contract for their championship is trading at $0.185. The team slightly increased over the day and solidified its position in first place.
Spain dropped to second place with a probability of 13% and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about three percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites — also around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner market has exceeded $2.54 billion, reflecting high interest in the tournament.
Why did Spain lose ground?
Spain's draw with Cape Verde was one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the unexpected result hit the Spanish odds hard. However, the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains chances to improve their position in upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely packed together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and their captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is valued at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same match day, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play Panama, and Uzbekistan will face Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which adds special significance to the debut match. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen their position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five leaders.
My analysis: The Polymarket market is not just a mirror of public sentiment but a highly sensitive indicator that instantly reacts to any surprises. Spain's draw with Cape Verde is a classic example of how one match can rewrite the entire picture of favorites. However, don't count the Spanish out: their squad depth and experience allow for a quick recovery. France is currently at the peak of attention, but the density in the top five is so high that any next round could change everything again. Keep an eye on the dynamics — it's in moments like these that the prediction market shows its true value.