Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and short-term holder calm
The first cryptocurrency market continues to show a consolidation phase, despite positive macroeconomic signals. The agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risks in the energy sector, failed to push Bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. The main drag on growth is concerns related to potential large-scale sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Pressure from the Corporate Giant
After the recent repurchase of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion maturing in 2029, the company may be forced to sell part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. Paradoxically, Strategy's aggressive share issuance, aimed at boosting growth potential, could backfire on the cryptocurrency itself under current conditions, creating additional supply on the market.
Short-Term Holders Remain Steadfast
While institutional players create pressure, short-term holders (STH) are showing remarkable calm. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors is at 0.995, indicating minor but not critical losses. The metric is holding firmly above the "panic threshold" of 0.95. The current market structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. A return of SOPR to the 1 level will be the first signal of improving sentiment, while a break below 0.95 would open the door to panic selling.
Altcoins Under Fire: Five-Year High in Selling
Against the backdrop of relative Bitcoin stability, altcoins are experiencing a veritable wave of selling. According to the latest data, selling pressure in this market segment has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buying and selling volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. A short-term recovery of this indicator to zero in early 2025 turned out to be a false signal—after a sharp reversal, pressure is only intensifying.
Analyst's View
The market situation resembles a classic "war of narratives": macroeconomic stability pushes prices up, while corporate risks and capital outflows from altcoins restrain growth. As long as short-term holders remain calm, Bitcoin has a chance for consolidation without a deep drawdown. However, investors should closely monitor Strategy's actions—any confirmation of a large sale could be the trigger for a move toward $60,000.