Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysts name reasons for consolidation
The market for the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, despite favorable macroeconomic signals. The agreement between the US and Iran has reduced geopolitical risks and stabilized the situation in the global energy sector, but Bitcoin stubbornly remains below the $66,000 mark. The reason is lingering concerns about potential sell-offs by Strategy.
My analysis shows that the company's own financial strategy remains the key pressure factor. After redeeming $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029, Strategy may be forced to sell some of its Bitcoin to fund dividend payments. The paradox of the situation is that the optimism caused by the stock issuance and the buildup of the company's growth potential could ultimately backfire on the cryptocurrency itself, creating excess supply.
Short-term holders remain calm
However, it is not so clear-cut. Data from CryptoQuant by the COINDREAM team indicates that short-term investors are not panicking. The SOPR indicator for this category of holders is at 0.995, suggesting only minor losses. The key panic threshold is at 0.95, and the current value is above it.
The current market structure points more to a fragile recovery phase rather than a full-blown capitulation. A return of the indicator to the 1 level will be the first signal of improving short-term sentiment. A drop below 0.95 would mean a sharp rise in panic and would likely trigger a new wave of sell-offs.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
Against the backdrop of relative Bitcoin stability, the altcoin market is experiencing a veritable storm of selling. Researchers at IT Tech have recorded a five-year high in selling pressure. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
A particularly alarming signal was the sharp reversal of the indicator at the beginning of 2025. After it nearly closed at the zero level, the indicator has again headed downward and shows no signs of recovery. This suggests that investors are actively offloading altcoins, shifting into safer assets or fiat.
My professional opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather a phase of accumulation before the next move. However, the threat from Strategy and the record pressure on altcoins create an extremely unstable environment. As long as short-term BTC holders hold firm, the altcoin market could become a source of systemic risk that ultimately affects the first cryptocurrency as well. Investors should closely monitor SOPR and the volume of sales by major players.