Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis of the fundamental reasons for consolidation
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, despite positive macroeconomic signals. The agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risks for global energy, failed to push bitcoin out of the consolidation zone below the $66,000 mark. The key pressure factor remains concerns related to potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Pressure from Strategy: a new risk for BTC
Analysts at QCP Capital note that Strategy may be forced to increase the volume of bitcoin sales to finance dividend payments. This becomes especially relevant after the repurchase of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. The company continues to actively issue shares, increasing its growth potential, but this optimism could backfire on the market if Strategy begins large-scale liquidation of its reserves.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally favors risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, for now, this positivity is not enough to outweigh the pressure from institutional players.
Short-term holders: calm before the storm?
Data from CryptoQuant by the COINDREAM team shows that short-term bitcoin holders are maintaining surprising calm. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating only minor losses. This metric remains above the "panic threshold" of 0.95.
The current market structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than full capitulation. A return of SOPR to the 1 level would confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment. However, a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal, indicating growing panic among holders.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While bitcoin maintains relative stability, the altcoin market is experiencing serious pressure. Researchers at IT Tech note that the cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC and ETH) has reached a five-year extreme. The indicator has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
At the beginning of 2025, the metric nearly closed at the zero level, offering hope for a trend reversal. However, a sharp downward reversal followed, and since then, selling pressure has only intensified. This suggests that investors continue to lock in losses on altcoins, reallocating capital to safer assets or simply exiting the market.
My view: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness but rather a phase of accumulation before the next major move. However, the risks associated with Strategy's actions are indeed significant. If the company begins aggressive sales, it could trigger a local crash. But in the long term, macroeconomic stabilization and reduced geopolitical risks create favorable conditions for a resumption of the bullish trend. Investors should closely monitor the actions of large holders rather than short-term price fluctuations.