France surges to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner rewritten
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a change in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. After Spain's unexpected goalless draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde, the French national team confidently took the lead in the rankings, displacing the Spaniards from the top spot.
Before the opening round, Spain held the lead with a convincing margin. However, the match result, which was considered extremely unlikely before it started, instantly shifted the balance of power. Traders quickly reacted to the disappointing outcome, and now 18.4% of all bets are on France winning, with the contract trading at $0.185.
How bets on the champion have changed
Spain dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites — also at about 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner market has exceeded $2.54 billion, reflecting enormous interest in the tournament.
It is important to emphasize: the market has only cooled on Spain, but has not ruled them out as a top contender. The team remains in the upper group of favorites and retains every chance to improve their position in upcoming matches. The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight: France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely packed, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is valued at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same match day, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives extra significance to his debut match. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen its position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five leaders.
My analysis: The Polymarket market once again demonstrates high sensitivity to unexpected results. Spain's draw with an underdog is a classic example of how a single event can reshape the entire tournament prediction table. However, the Spaniards should not be written off: their squad depth and experience remain strong arguments. France, having seized the moment, is now under pressure — holding onto the lead will be harder than achieving it.